Campaign Catch-22: Why Election Campaigns Fail at Changing Minds

Author: Mohith M. Varma (Social Secretary)

U. S. election campaigns rank among the most expensive in the world. Even with vast investment in advertisements, rallies, and canvassing, election outcomes often depend on just a few battleground states, while most American states grip firmly onto a given political direction. Why does this happen? Why is it that, despite billions of dollars spent to induce a shift in how people think, voters often appear to have already made their minds up and refuse to budge?

At the heart of this mystery lies a possible contributor: an evolutionarily acquired aspect of human nature that may have once served us well. Consider our ancestors in the time that survival hinges on the swift choice. If you were part of a small tribe and a sudden threat approached-say, a wild animal or a rival group, quickly sticking to a decision could be the difference between life and death. Doubt, hesitation, or second-guessing could have catastrophic consequences. The inclination to accept initial judgments and avoid uncertainty— this tendency is so practically adaptive that it became an evolutionary imperative for survival.

In modern life, this psychological wiring still affects us. We are predisposed to defend once a decision has been made about a potential candidate or political position. Changing views may, at times, feel like admitting to a prior mistake and can feel uncomfortable too. When presented with evidence that contradicts our beliefs, it is very uncomfortable, especially if those beliefs are tied to our identity and social ties. This leads to confirmation bias, which is essentially the tendency to find only evidence that backs previously held views rather than evidence that may contradict them. If you have already made up your mind that the candidate is not a good fit, you are likely to disregard any evidence pointing in the opposite direction.

People, in a polarized political climate, often surround themselves with similar minded people and maintain those beliefs instead of questioning them. This is even magnified further in the age of social media. We select which information to see in our news feeds (this effect is further amplified by social media algorithms), we add friends with who we agree, and we go to groups that hold true to what we now know to be true. This leads to an echo chamber, in which the alternative views are not only ignored, but often actively discredited. Hence, despite vast sums of money spent on campaign ads, the impact may be small. In fact, it is known that the more people are exposed to information that challenges their opinions, the more those existing opinions can harden. It is known as the backfire effect. In other words, the more forcefully a campaign seeks to change the person’s opinion, the more entrenched they may become.

Moreover, identity politics is another aspect that cannot be sidestepped. It’s more and more part of people’s identities to associate with a particular party today. The political gap today is not just one where both sides have different policies but one where both belong to bigger cultural movements. For many, the thought of changing sides is seen as abandoning some greater group within society and can be quite uncomfortable. In fact, billions of dollars to run presidential campaigns are not just about swaying minds but galvanizing the base. In states that are reliably red or blue, campaigns may basically be about maintaining each front in turn, sustaining level of support, and ensuring turnout.

This brings us to: What can be done to help people break free from these entrenched positions? How can we encourage more thoughtful decision-making among voters?

Fostering open-mindedness is an important first step. When people feel appreciated and understood, they are more likely to change their beliefs. We need to establish forums for genuine dialogue rather than merely criticizing the other side or denigrating those who hold different opinions. Listening to others without judgment and understanding their concerns can help bridge the divide, making it easier for people to reassess their views. This reflective form of empathy can result in better, more nuanced decisions. Whereas interactions that devolve into personal attacks—common in polarized debates broadcast on news channels and even on social media posts—tend to reinforce divisions rather than promote reflection or change.

Misinformation is one of the main factors that strengthens deeply entrenched views. News and social media can form echo chambers where users opt to see content only confirming their beliefs. Campaigns could do more to directly address misinformation by promoting fact-checking initiatives, partnering with trusted sources, and encouraging voters to seek reliable, evidence-based information. Another way to prevent the spread of misleading or deceptive narratives is to be transparent about campaign messaging, such as clearly stating the source and backing for policy proposals.

Lastly, we need to invest in an informed electorate. Voter fatigue resulting from the sheer volume of political commercials and messages can lead some people to refrain from participation or withdraw from participation. Campaigns are most effectively optimized by including information in the materials on the concrete issues in question, as opposed to techniques based on negative advertising or politically driven narratives.

Although these solutions may appear idealistic, they undeniably do not lie in a realm of impossibility. The art of any successful implementation of a solution will be in enduring effort. In this sense, such approaches are not sensation-grabbing, but instead will require a generation-long, systemic change in the cultural drive toward the making of an informed, participatory, and more reflective voter. It is going to take time, resources, and effort, but if the right strategies are put in place, change is not only feasible-it is critical for a healthier, more effective democracy.